I have no clear political convictions.

I’m not good at political debate, because I almost always see some good points in the opposing view. For that reason, I hate getting into political arguments. I’m too easily swayed. If I give up ground too easily, I’m afraid it makes me seem like a more attractive target for conversion. But if I hold firm, I feel like I’m just being stubborn and close-minded.

A butterfly flaps its wings in China and the consequences are unpredictable. How can anyone have firm convictions in such a world?

There is nothing firm in this world. There is not even a God. Thou shalt not kill — unless you’re waging war or administering the death penalty. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s goods — unless you’re trying to make money.

(Thou shalt not commit adultery — unless you’re a politician. Thou shalt not steal — unless you’re in the energy business. Thou shalt not bear false witness — unless you’re claiming to be a Swift Boat veteran.)

Having political convictions is like holding a scientific hypothesis. We like to infer rules based on what we see around us.

But at least in science experiments, there are controls and a variable; you can test your hypothesis. In the real world, there are no controls — only variables. There are so many variables that it’s impossible to conduct a truly scientific test of a political belief.

I have no clear political convictions. Sometimes I wish I did. But if I did, I’d be wrong. And I hate losing.