I’ve been thinking about Kerry and the perils of running on one’s voting record. It’s so easy for the Bush campaign to use various past votes by Kerry to try to illustrate things about Kerry’s beliefs and about what he would or wouldn’t do.
But there are different reasons why a U.S. senator might vote a certain way. True, a senator’s vote might reflect his own beliefs. But it might reflect the beliefs of his constituents — the residents of his state. Or a senator might vote tactically, knowing that the outcome is going to be so lopsided in one direction or another that his individual vote won’t matter.
For instance, suppose the Senate is voting on whether to levy trade sanctions against Frabonia. You’re a senator, and a majority of your state’s constituents are either ethnically Frabonic-American or benefit from U.S.-Frabonic trade and would oppose such sanctions. You yourself believe that sanctions against Frabonia are extremely necessary, but you know you’d get in trouble with your home state if you voted that way. So you’re torn between your constituents’ views and your own views.
You’d have a difficult choice if the potential vote in the Senate was really close; your vote could decide the issue. Fortunately, though, something like 70 out of 100 senators are known to support the sanctions. Since you know the sanctions are going to happen now matter how you vote, you can safely vote against the sanctions, mirroring your constituents’ desires and thereby preserving your chances for re-election.
Unfortunately, a few years later you run for President, and U.S.-Frabonian relations are a major issue because of the Frabonians’ hostile treatment of its Christian minority. Your opponents make hay out of your earlier vote against the trade sanctions. You can’t say that you personally supported the sanctions but had to vote for what your constituents wanted, because you can’t guarantee you’ll win this race and you might wind up back in the Senate having to run for re-election to your seat at some point.
I think this has a lot to do with why so few senators become party nominees.
Well put. (Oh, and Frabonia reminds me of Bigunia and Littelia, two fictitious countries from a mock trial in an international law class I took way back when.)
Well, don’t forget that voting records are incredibly easy to manipulate. Bills up for vote have 10,000 moving parts, so it’s easy to pigeonhole someone for voting against something that was amended to a bill at the last minute.