Chris Bowers points out that even if Obama wins every primary before Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5th, Clinton could still have the most delegates and win the nomination:
Collectively, Clinton’s advantage in Super Delegates, Michigan, and February 5th home states provides her with roughly a 500 delegate advantage on Obama. If she were to also win Florida and California, which combine for 555 pledged delegates, it would be impossible for Obama to be ahead on delegates after February 5th. He could win every other state between now and February 6th, and never make up that sort of delegate deficit.
There are flaws in this analysis, as various commenters point out. But isn’t this fascinating? When was the last time the race was so fluid that people actually had to pay attention to delegate counts?
As for the Republican race – in which nobody seems to be a front-runner right now — I could see a scenario where February 5th doesn’t decide anything. If that happens, the last thing the Republicans would want is for a fight to break out at their nationally-televised convention in September, so there’d probably be some sort of brokered deal before then.
What a year.
I like Chris Bowers, but he’s already analyzed this race umpteen different ways and been proven wrong. In this particular instance he’s even abandoning a prediction that’s about to be proven correct (that an Obama win in Iowa would lead him to cruise to the nomination) and predicting something unnecessarily complicated.
If Obama made a gaffe, or something happened to put Hillary in the news in an immensely positive light, perhaps a key domino would be removed. But as it stands, an Iowa win sets up an NH win, which sets up an SC win, which pretty much means he’s taking all of the big states coming up (excluding Arkansas, but probably including NY). Edwards will get out and endorse him at some point and he’ll get most of those voters. Clinton can afford to stick around for a while and will do so, but the ill will she’d get by forcing a brokered convention would not be worth it. Barring a decided turnaround, she’s not going to sneak into the convention with a majority.
…then Obama will win the nomination and racist xenophobic America will vote for whatever white man the Republicans nominate and hello President Huckabee and goodbye church/state separation, gay rights, and evolution. :-(
Historically, wins in Iowa and New Hampshire do not necessarily mean victory in the remaining primaries.