Not to get complacent, but I’ve been thinking about this and apparently some journalists have as well: if Obama wins Virginia on Election Night, it could be a short night. Virginia polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time. All the Kerry states plus Virginia’s 13 electoral votes adds up to 265; since Iowa is apparently in the bag already, that brings Obama to 272. Which doesn’t even count the likely Colorado and New Mexico.
The downside is that if everyone sees that Obama is the likely winner, it could affect turnout in downballot races. That creates a news dilemma.
But again… complacent is the last thing we should be right now. Anything can still happen.
More people like voting for the winner, so if it affects turnout, it will probably be in the right direction.
It’s possible, but I think it’s going to be a big news night. I mean, we are on the cusp of having the nation’s first mixed-race president; that will be a remarkable milestone. Second, it may be close in terms of the total popular vote, but in terms of the electoral college there is a not-unreasonable chance of an Obama landslide (FiveThirtyEight.com gives him a 33% chance of getting 375 electoral votes). The news of the evening won’t be “how fast does Obama clinch” but how big is the margin and which states are surprises? I think the early bellwether isn’t Virginia but North Carolina. Besides, everybody knows that northern Virginia has been taken over by communists from DC.