Many times during George W. Bush’s first term in office, I imagined how different things might have been had Al Gore been inaugurated as president. The closeness of the election made this a tempting exercise. Similarly, at times lately I’ve wondered what things would be like if Hillary Clinton had beaten Obama for the Democratic nomination — which she came close to doing — and then, presumably, won the presidency.
The Republicans are winning the message war over the stimulus plan right now — or at least they sure seem to be getting much more coverage than the Democrats. Would this be happening if Hillary were president? She knows how to play hardball politics against the Republicans. There’s no telling if things would be different right now. Maybe they’d be better, maybe they’d be worse. But I’m unhappy with the way things are going, so once again, it’s tempting to hypothesize an alternate universe.
One thing I take heart in is that Obama seems adaptable. He has an op-ed in today’s Washington Post, and although nobody reads newspapers anymore, it’s at least something. I also saw that he’s considering a prime-time Oval Office address.
Maybe he should have taken more control over the bill from the start? It’s not really his bill right now — he let the congressional Democrats draft it, which, as this piece points out, might have seemed like a good idea at the time, since Congress needs to pass the bill in order for it to land on Obama’s desk. But it seems “much more like an omnibus bill than a stimulus bill,” according to Susan Collins, with tons of little things for Republicans to attack. Maybe it should have focused on just a few big things instead of some big things and lots of little things. The way things stand, it’s Congress’s bill, but the media will blame Obama if it tanks.
But it probably won’t tank. Some sort of bill will eventually pass. Legislating is a messy process, and hopefully this will lead to something that can get enough votes to overcome a potential filibuster. (By the way, it would be nice if the spineless Harry Reid would actually make the Republicans filibuster for once instead of just letting them say they will. Make them get up there and read the phone book or the complete works of Charles Dickens! Eventually they’ll have to fold.)
It’s weird — when Bush had 30% approval ratings, he could still get what he wanted. Obama, with 65% approval, is coming off as weak. The common factor? Unyielding Republicans and feckless Democrats.
Hopefully this has been a good lesson for Obama: you can’t win over Republicans. You can only beat them or lose to them. The modern-day Republican Party is not a normal political party. Instead, it’s a religious party: tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. Could you convince fundamentalist Christians to support gay marriage or believe in evolution by inviting them to a Superbowl party? No. So why would it work on Republicans? They’ll just say, “Thank you so much for inviting us to your party! You’re such a great guy! Now give us our tax cuts.”
Obama is thoughtful and pays attention to criticism. Thoughtfulness can make you weak in politics. But he seems to be good at learning from mistakes — so I still have hope.